A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
